Introduction
On 20 June 2025, Eurostat published its quarterly update on World Refugee Day, reporting a 23.5% decrease in first-time asylum applications across the EU-27 in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. While this EU-wide reduction is accurate, regional trends reveal a complementary story.
As Eurostat recently updated its annual 2024 datasets, MedMA breaks them down through a regional lens, focusing on the Mediterranean region, in five Mediterranean Member States: Greece, Italy, Spain, Cyprus, and Malta (the MED5) who have seen diverging trends, both in absolute and per capita rates.
Focusing on the Mediterranean is not only about narrowing the lens, but about understanding where the resilience of the Common European Asylum System is tested most acutely. The regional situation, in this sense, is a mirror for the whole Union: if solidarity, fairness, and rights cannot be guaranteed at the frontline, they remain fragile everywhere.
This selection does not intend to distort the wider European picture, but to highlight a regional dynamic that warrants policy attention, especially in the context of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS) and the forthcoming implementation of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum. It should be noted that a more complete understanding of trends in the region would benefit from corresponding data from the Western Balkans and the MENA region.
A Note on Terms and Methodology
Why do we focus on the MED5? The MED5 countries (Greece, Italy, Spain, Cyprus, and Malta) situated along the Mediterranean migration routes, have historically received a large share of asylum seekers’ arrivals within the EU, with the notable exception of the post-2022 arrivals of people displaced from Ukraine. At the same time, we recognize that a full regional analysis would also require analysing trends in other important routes, including the Western Balkans and the whole MENA region.
Why first-time applicants? The note uses data for first-time applicants: A first-time applicant for international protection is a person who lodged an application for asylum for the first time in each EU Member State. Therefore, this note excludes repeat applicants or pending applications. This choice is based on the objective of accurately reflecting the number of newly arrived persons applying for international protection and, as a result, the operational needs that emerge in a state, during a specific time period.
Data: This Note is based on Eurostat datasets:
- First-time asylum applicants (absolute numbers): migr_asyappctzm
- Per capita data (applications per 1,000 inhabitants): migr_asyapp1mp
- Asylum applicants by nationality: migr_asyappctzm
- Asylum decisions (first instance): migr_asydcfsta
- Asylum decisions (final instance): migr_asydcfina
All datasets were extracted on 30 June 2025, covering 2024 and Q1 2025. The analysis focuses on the MED5 countries (Greece, Italy, Spain, Cyprus, Malta) in comparison to the EU‑27 averages.
Naming: MedMA uses the UN terminology in text and charts. Original Eurostat labels appear in sources. This is for consistency and implies no position on status or recognition.
Entering 2025 with a Diverging Trendline
As mentioned above, for the first quarter of 2025, the aggregated trend for the MED5 countries is opposite to the wider EU trajectory. In Q1 2025, the EU received 183,810 first-time asylum applications, down from 240,125 in Q1 2024. At the same time, in the MED5, applications rose steeply, from 33,295 to 59,305, meaning a 78% increase. Spain, Greece, and Italy recorded increases of 92%, 85%, and 67%, respectively. Malta also saw a 31% rise, while only Cyprus registered a decrease.
Focusing on 2024
The increasing number of first-time asylum applications in 2024, is a continuing trend that started after 2020. Ιt should be emphasized that figures for 2020 and 2021 were temporarily reduced because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2020 and 2024, EU-wide applications grew by 70%, and MED5 applications nearly tripled. In 2024, MED5 applications reached 391,315, an all-time high for the group. Meanwhile, the EU-wide total dropped slightly from the 2023 peak. These figures show that the MED5 are not just experiencing temporary pressure but have become a sustained zone of high numbers of asylum applications. For a detailed view of the annual first-time applications in each EU+ state, you may visit MedMA’s interactive map.
Greece shows a steady increase since 2021, reaching over 68,000 applicants in 2024. Spain has emerged as the largest recipient among the MED 5, with 164,010 first-time applicants in 2024. Italy follows closely with 151,120. Both countries have experienced a steep increase of applications since 2020. It should be noted that Italy’s record number of asylum applications in 2024 also coincided with the announcement of a bilateral agreement with Albania, examined in detail in MedMA’s policy brief Offshoring Migration – Risking Rights, which highlights the legal and human rights concerns raised by efforts to externalise asylum procedures beyond EU territory. Cyprus and Malta show lower absolute volumes.
Rates Per 1,000 Inhabitants
The per capita rates of first-time applications in 2024 reveal the extent of the divergence. Cyprus shows the highest rate with 7.2 first-time applicants per 1,000 inhabitants. Greece follows with a rate of 6.63. Meanwhile, the EU-level reached the rate of 2.0 per 1,000.
The charts above reveal a pattern where the Mediterranean frontline states are managing asylum applications at two to three times the EU average. For smaller Member States, such as Cyprus, these figures represent a long-term systemic challenge.
From Registration to Destination: the Dual Geography of Asylum Responsibility
It is important, however, to recognise what Eurostat’s first-time application data actually capture: the country of initial registration. Many applicants later move onwards and reapply elsewhere in the EU. This pattern of secondary movements is mainly documented by Eurodac, as well as the Dublin Statistics by Eurostat. For example, in 2023, Germany registered over 100,000 foreign hits, linking new asylum applications to earlier registrations in other Member States, typically in the Mediterranean. France, Belgium, and the Netherlands follow suit with thousands of such hits.
Taken together, Eurostat and Eurodac provide two complementary lenses: the frontline responsibility borne by MED5 states at the point of entry, and the destination responsibility borne by Northern and Western states. Both should be considered in any debate on responsibility-sharing.
First-time Asylum Applicants: The People Behind the Numbers
Understanding applicants’ demographic characteristics helps contextualise the function of the Common European Asylum System within broader geopolitical dynamics.
In 2024, Greece registered over 15,000 Afghan applicants and more than 11,000 Syrian applicants confirming Afghanistan and Syria as major countries of origin for forced displacement. In Cyprus, the overwhelming majority of first-time applications comes from Syrian nationals. The figures above align with the continuing insecurity in Afghanistan after the Taliban reoccupation, and with the unfolding security situation in Syria. Italy received over 32,800 first-time applicants from Bangladesh. Spain recorded a different dominant trend, with 65,460 applicants from Venezuela. First-time applicants from Sudan and Eritrea continue to appear in the statistics, especially in Greece. This trend follows on the high peak of first- time applications by nationals of both countries in 2023 as can be observed above, on an EU level. The situation in the Horn of Africa where multiple conflicts have been reignited in 2023 and 2024, seems to be a key driver behind these figures.
First- instance Decisions on Asylum Applications
Note: The asylum decision figures presented below reflect decisions relating not only to applications lodged in 2024, but also to the applications submitted in previous years. Therefore, the figures should not be interpreted as directly corresponding to the annual intake figures, given the time lag in the decision-issuing process.
In a European Union with a total of 51.4% positive decisions, an apparent divergence appears among the MED5 countries, as well as the composition of the positive decisions on a national level. For longitudinal data on all EU+ states, you can dive here.
Based on the data provided by Eurostat, in Greece, the positive decision rate is 71% for refugee status and 0.5% subsidiary protection. For nationals of Sudan, Afghanistan, and the State of Palestine, first-instance recognition rates in Greece surpassed 97%. Meanwhile, the highest number of negative decisions was issued for Egyptian nationals.
In Cyprus, 30.2% of first-instance asylum decisions were positive, with 10.5% resulting in the granting of refugee status and 19.7% in subsidiary protection. The highest numbers of refugee status grants were issued to applicants from the State of Palestine, Afghanistan, and Somalia, all countries with well-documented protection needs. It should also be noted that, on April 2024, the Government issued a policy that suspended the examination of asylum applications by Syrian nationals. Even in this context, it appears that 71% of the subsidiary status decisions concerned Syrian nationals. The overall recognition rate remains the lowest in the region, as 69.8% of the decisions were rejections, with a high percentage of these concerning nationals of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
In Italy, 57% of first-instance asylum decisions in 2024 were positive but only 7.8% resulted in the granting of international protection status. The majority of those comprises of subsidiary protection (34.7%). The main nationalities receiving refugee status were Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire.
In Malta, 41.4% of first-instance asylum decisions in 2024 were positive, comprising 10.4% refugee status and 31.1% of subsidiary protection. Refugee status was granted to a small number of applicants, primarily from the State of Palestine, Syria, and Somalia. In contrast, subsidiary protection was granted overwhelmingly to Syrian nationals, with nationals from Eritrea and Somalia following in far lower numbers.
In Spain, 56.4% of first-instance asylum decisions in 2024 were positive, but 7% of applicants were granted refugee status. The majority were issued humanitarian protection (36.6%), with a smaller number receiving subsidiary protection. Refugee status was most frequently granted to nationals of Nicaragua, Syria, and Afghanistan. These figures reflect a dual reality: while refugee status is primarily reserved for applicants from high-risk conflict settings, Spain (much like Italy) has largely relied on humanitarian protection decisions to address displacement from Latin America.
In Italy and Spain we can also observe the use of national protection tools, namely the provision of a residence permit on humanitarian grounds. In Italy, humanitarian protection decisions are the 14.6% of the overall decisions. This domestic legal instrument is mainly used to address the needs of applicants from Egypt, Bangladesh, and India, who are considered to be to a lesser extent eligible for protection in the context of the EU. Also, in Spain, a substantial share of decisions (36.6%) in 2024 involved grants of humanitarian protection, a status used primarily to respond to displacement from Latin America. It should be noted that in Greece, the absence of decisions on humanitarian status in 2024 reflects that the possibility for an asylum applicant to be granted with a residence permit for humanitarian reasons was repealed by Law 4686/2020.
Final Decisions on Asylum Applications
At the final stage of the asylum procedure (following an appeal after a rejection) the EU-wide overall positive decision rate dropped to 27.1%. Italy shows a 74.6% rate of humanitarian status grants, mainly to nationals of Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nigeria. Meanwhile, Spain, Greece, and Cyprus recorded final-stage rejection rates exceeding 90%. Again, these variations stem from caseload composition, and national frameworks. For example, in the case of Greece, final rejections should be interpreted against the nationality composition of said decisions, in the context of the safe third country policy adopted since 2021.
Policy Observations
This policy note has presented and analysed the latest Eurostat data on asylum applications and decisions across the MED5 countries (Greece, Italy, Spain, Cyprus, and Malta), revealing patterns and divergences within this region of the European Union’s asylum landscape. High recognition rates for applicants from war-torn countries of origin, such as Afghanistan, the State of Palestine, Syria, and Sudan, underscore and remind the essential role asylum plays in delivering protection.
At the same time, while overall EU asylum applications declined in early 2025, the Mediterranean frontline countries experienced a substantial increase in their share of asylum responsibilities. This divergence warrants focused analysis, not to distort the broader European and regional picture, but because frontline states bear the primary responsibility for receiving and processing new arrivals at the external borders. Public opinion in Mediterranean countries may also be affected by the asymmetric nature of responsibility-sharing within the European Union. It fuels perceptions of inequity, creating challenges not only for domestic policy but also for EU-wide solidarity and cooperation.
Understanding asylum governance in the MED 5 necessitates a broader analytical framework, including complementary data and analysis on Dublin Regulation transfers, secondary movements, and return procedures, which crucially affect the distribution and management of responsibilities among EU Member States. A wider dataset will yield a more comprehensive picture of the actual pressures and operational challenges faced by frontline countries. Further analysis on these fronts will be publicized by MedMA.
The current situation lends urgency to the implementation of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, particularly its principle of flexible solidarity. Flexible solidarity mechanisms must be operationally responsive and practically meaningful for frontline states, taking into account both the numerical pressures and the complex legal and social contexts in which asylum governance takes place. However, the Pact, providing a harmonised EU minimum cannot and should not be expected to resolve all systemic issues. Member States retain the policy space to adopt national instruments that extend beyond this baseline; instruments that remain essential to fill gaps in protection, especially where the harmonised EU framework does not adequately respond to humanitarian realities, as illustrated by Italy’s extensive use of humanitarian status.
Finally, the high rate of negative decisions, both at first and final instance, across some MED 5 countries highlights a pressing policy aspect. Without national regularisation programs or safe return processes, rejected asylum seekers often end up with prolonged irregular status. This exposes them to economic hardship, social marginalisation, and vulnerability. Therefore, there is a need for practical national responses, such as targeted regularisation programmes or complementary pathways, to reduce the human and social costs linked to this challenge.
This note offers a regional lens. It highlights where pressure is being absorbed, and how different policy instruments result accordingly. The Common European Asylum System will succeed if it is built on balance of responsibility and solidarity, tangible support, and a commitment to fundamental rights of asylum seekers, refugees and rejected applicants. In that context, understanding the implications of the breadth of responsibility becomes a necessary requirement for good governance.