As Europe steps into 2026, migration and asylum policy continues to generate heated debates within and among European institutions and peoples. This should come as no surprise: 2026 is the year the new Pact on Migration and Asylum (adopted in 2024) is destined to become operational. In other words, the year ahead will determine whether the EU will be in a position to boast of achieving a functional asylum system—or risk another missed opportunity.
2025 showcased the familiar contradictions of Europe’s migration landscape. Arrivals across the Mediterranean continued, driven by conflict, climate stress, and economic disparity. States at the external border once again bore a disproportionate responsibility. Political pressure mounted across EU member states for governments to demonstrate ‘control’ often translating into a narrow focus on deterrence and returns rather than protection and responsibility-sharing.
In March 2025, the European Commission proposed a new Common European System for Returns. Returns constitute one of the most politically sensitive areas of reform, in the light of the difficulties faced by member states in implementing returns. EU return rate remains low — approximately 30 % of return decisions were executed in the first three quarters of 2025 — not because of a lack of legal frameworks but due to practical, procedural, and enforcement constraints. In December 2025, the Council finalized its position on the Commission proposal. Once the Parliament finalizes its own position, trilogues may begin. One of the key elements of the Commission proposal related to the mutual recognition of return decisions. According to the Council’s position, the Commission is called upon to assess the functioning of mutual recognition two years after the entry into application and, as appropriate, put forward a legislative proposal to make mutual recognition mandatory. The Council also espoused the concept of ‘return hubs’. The discussions to follow in 2026 will prove whether the EU can develop a credible, rights-respecting returns policy that goes beyond enforcement rhetoric and invests in cooperation with countries of origin, reintegration support, and legal pathways as complementary tools.
In April 2025, the European Commission released a proposal for amending the Asylum Procedures Regulation, including in Annex a list of ‘safe countries of origin’. As expected, human rights advocates and stakeholders have raised concerns over the implementation of the concept of ‘safe countries of origin’ and its impact on the rights of asylum seekers. On 18 December 2025, Council and Parliament reached an agreement on the proposed list, which includes Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, Kosovo, India, Morocco and Tunisia. The list is an important piece within the Pact architecture, to come into effect in June 2026.
Following the meetings of the High-Level Solidarity Forum on 18 and 25 November 2025, the European Council agreed on 8 December 2025 upon the establishment of an annual Solidarity Pool for 2026, to be made The reference number for the Solidarity Pool for 2026 is 21.000 relocations or other solidarity efforts or EUR 420 million financial contributions. Cyprus, Greece, Italy, and Spain can benefit from the solidarity pool, as these four countries have been deemed under migratory pressure by the Commission, based on the assessment of quantitative and qualitative criteria set out in the Pact. Besides, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia and Poland have been identified as facing a significant migratory situation due to the cumulative migratory pressure of the previous years. As such, the member states that have indicated their wish to see their solidarity contributions for the first solidarity pool fully or partially reduced, have had their pledges adjusted in light of the significant migratory situation.
The solidarity pool lies at the heart of the Pact and is designed to replace ad hoc responses with a predictable mechanism allowing Member States to choose between relocation, financial contributions, or operational support. The mandatory, but flexible mechanism has in theory been conceived as a way to break the long-standing deadlock between frontline and destination countries. In practice, it risks becoming a test of political will. If solidarity is treated as an accounting exercise rather than a shared responsibility, the system may reproduce old imbalances under a new label.
Parallel, but not unrelated, to the new Pact on Migration and Asylum, the Commission unveiled on 16 October 2025 its Pact for the Mediterranean, which involves projects to be carried out in 10 Southern Mediterranean countries related to amongst others migration and integration. It is now clear that unilateral measures and externalization strategies cannot substitute for genuine cooperation among the EU, Mediterranean member states and neighboring states. The unveiling of the Pact for the Mediterranean calls for further reflection on how to create effective labor mobility partnerships with third states, as a long-term component of migration management.
At the close of 2025, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission commented the Danish Presidency of the Council for laying a ‘very solid foundation for the presidencies to come’. Indeed, Cyprus, having taken over the Presidency of the Council for the first semester of 2026, is called upon to build on the work undertaken by its Trio partners toward the goal of marking the Pact operational. As a frontline member state experiencing firsthand migratory pressure, the Cyprus Presidency carries symbolic and strategic weight. Cyprus is uniquely positioned to advocate for solidarity towards Mediterranean states, while fostering a more realistic conversation about capacity and responsibility. But more importantly, the success of migration management on a European level will ultimately hinge on fostering trust and an honest acknowledgment that responsibility has to be shared.